El Niño 2026-27 and the Tahoe Winter

Errol Kerr's Godzilla El Niño series in one place: the NOAA numbers, what a very strong event could do to the Sierra, and how a Truckee excavation crew prepares for it.

The short version

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center confirmed El Niño in July 2026, and each monthly update since has leaned stronger: a Pacific running about 3.0°C above normal by September, and a better than even chance of a very strong or record event. For the Sierra that tilts the odds toward a wetter, warmer storm track: more atmospheric rivers, a higher snow level, rain on snow and flood risk at town elevations, with deep snow up high. It is a tilt, not a guarantee. Every storm still has to be forecast on its own.

The series, newest first

What it means on the ground in Truckee

• Snow level matters more than totals. Truckee sits near 5,800 feet, so a storm at 6,000 feet snow level is rain in town and snow on Donner Summit.
• Saturated ground and rain on snow mean drainage, erosion control and storm water work get tested early. See excavation in Truckee and the excavation guide.
• Back to back storms mean more plowing. See snow removal in Truckee.

Follow each storm as it arrives

• Kerr Storm Tracker, errolkerr.com's own future radar built from NEXRAD, HRRR and GFS with a self-grading accuracy loop.
• Truckee weather forecast and the Weather Blog.
• Published forecast accuracy, verified against the Truckee airport station.
• Official outlook: NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO discussion.

Questions

Is a strong El Niño coming for the 2026-27 winter?

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center confirmed El Niño conditions in July 2026. The series on this page tracks its odds: 97% through spring 2027 in the July update, 95% for a very strong event in the August update, and a 75% chance of a record event in the September update. Check the Climate Prediction Center for the current monthly ENSO discussion.

Does El Niño mean a big snow year in Tahoe?

Not by itself. El Niño tilts the odds toward a wetter and warmer storm track in the Sierra, which can mean more rain at lower elevations, a higher snow level and flood risk, with deep snow at the highest elevations. Each storm still has to be forecast on its own.

What does a wet El Niño winter mean for Truckee crews?

More frequent atmospheric river storms, a snow level that can sit near town elevation, rain on snow, ice on roads and saturated ground. Errol Kerr, a Truckee excavation foreman, uses the series to plan drainage, erosion control and snow removal staffing.

Where can I follow each storm as it arrives?

The Kerr Storm Tracker at errolkerr.com/weather#storms is the site's own future radar built from NEXRAD, HRRR and GFS, and errolkerr.com/weather#accuracy publishes the forecast error against the Truckee airport station.